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ChrisR

Comedy Central, John Oliver and BREXIT

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That is great. Just posted it to all the sites I have been commenting on about staying in the EU. At the same time I am checking the family genealogy to be sure I am definitely a distant cousin of Robert the Bruce. In the case of a Leave vote on Thursday I may be well moving to Scotland and joining in their campaign to leave the UK and stay in the EU. I will also be helping them restore Hadrian's wall!

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That is great. Just posted it to all the sites I have been commenting on about staying in the EU. At the same time I am checking the family genealogy to be sure I am definitely a distant cousin of Robert the Bruce. In the case of a Leave vote on Thursday I may be well moving to Scotland and joining in their campaign to leave the UK and stay in the EU. I will also be helping them restore Hadrian's wall!

Well I'm glad to learn you're confirming a distant relationship to Robert. A close relationship would make you about 700 years old and the photo you use doesn't make you look much over 200, maybe 300 tops.

On the other hand, it's sort of odd that you're looking to move to Scotland where you can agitate for them to leave the UK all because the UK would dare to leave the EU! All one big happy family. Geesh. (Granted, written by somebody whose ancestors were Irish potato farmers...)

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Thanks for posting this, VWL. I often find GW has a reasonable opinion buried in his eruditical, philosophical rhetoric. This time, however, he brought up an interesting point by Mr. Gove:

Mildly invoking 1776 for an American guest, Gove says "self-government works

better than being part of an empire that doesn't have our interests at heart." So,

the 23rd of June can become Britain's Fourth of July — a Declaration of Independence.

Fair enough. But it also seems to echo a growing opinion in some US states with respect to the US federal government's either overreaching its rightful authority or ignoring its responsibility. Interesting times.

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Just hope you guys don't crash our stock market!

C

We will just have to wait and see. The polls closed half an hour ago. Now the start counting. Today the pound had its highest rise against the dollar for 30 years, which the pundits say indicates a Remain vote. Hope so.

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Well, The New York Times just posted that Britian has voted to EXIT the EU. If I had any investments in Britian, especially the Poumd, I'd think about shifting to the Dollar.

Looking at the drop on the pound in off market trading they are doing exactly that.

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Better not pick anything on the stock markets worldwide. The U.S. Dow Jones futures index is down 668 to 17,247 (on the TV in SF at 11:02 PM); the Nasdaq futures index is down 222 to 4,240. In China the Hang Seng index is down about 1,000 points. The British Pound has hit a 31-year low at $1.33 vs $1.50.

Colin :icon_geek:

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Better not pick anything on the stock markets worldwide. The U.S. Dow Jones futures index is down 668 to 17,247 (on the TV in SF at 11:02 PM); the Nasdaq futures index is down 222 to 4,240. In China the Hang Seng index is down about 1,000 points. The British Pound has hit a 31-year low at $1.33 vs $1.50.

Colin :icon_geek:

I would not be surprised if it does not get worse.

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This does not bode well for the United States. I was watching the live ITV coverage on C-Span last night and this morning and they said there was a tendency for most non-university educated people to vote leave, while those with university educations tended to vote Remain. Also, working class whites voted Leave, and non-working class whites voted Remain. The polls had given Remain a slight edge, but they were wrong. The nationalists won.

In the United States, Donald Trump is strongest among non-university educated, working-class whites, the same groups of people in the US who tended to vote Leave in the UK, though polls give Hillary a 5-8% lead. I sincerely hope the nationalist, anti-immigrant forces here aren't underestimated, as they were in Britain, and that we don't see a parallel here in the November election.

ITV says immigration fears were the strongest reason for people to vote Leave in the UK. In the US, I believe that immigration is what built America and makes us strong. All of us who aren't descended from Native Americans are immigrants. Of course, some will say it is "Illegal" immigration they oppose, but living in Oklahoma, one of the most conservative states in the US, I seldom hear Trump supporters make that distinction.

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Well, it looks as if the Nationalists are going to end up with a very small nation! The Scottish First Minister has just stated that it is undemocratic to withdraw Scotland from the EU when the Scots have indicated they want to stay in the EU. It looks like a second Scottish Independence referendum, but this time with support from the Scottish Conservatives and Labour parties.

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Overreaction -- and a possibility of investment opportunities.

There are two phenomena that will affect the market in the near future. First is Brexit. Investors are reacting as if Britain will lose all its trade opportunities. However, British products are still valued -- even more so with any devaluation of the pound -- as are European goods and services in Britain, so it is unlikely that Europe would cut off their own noses to punish Britain. There is likely to be a correction in the next few months. There may be some real investment opportunities in British stocks and bonds.

Second, however, follows George Soros's bet on a bear market worldwide because he feels markets are strongly overvalued, and Brexit may be a catalyst for a major change in stock values.

How these two play out will be interesting to watch.

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It is somehow disconcerting that such an enormous action can take place based on a simple majority. I'm surprised that those who organized the vote didn't set it up requiring a 'super-majority' of, say, 60% to authorize a change in the status quo. It otherwise sets the table for future votes in which relatively small numbers of voters could swing back and forth between BRin and BRout. And now there are the issues of Scotland, N. Ireland and Gibraltar to consider, where the vote was to stay.

Fasten your seatbelts, folks. Fun times ahead.

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I heard one of the Leave people state that we were going into interesting times. I wonder if he realised that is a Chinese curse, 'may you live in interesting times'!!

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